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The 16 players that switched conferences to the East are collectively far worse than the 15 players that went the other way. According to EPM data from DunksAndThrees.com, West-to-East players registered an aggregated MINUS-14.6 EPM while the West saw that same total check in at plus-5.3. Said another way, the caliber of players that the West took from the East were 20 points better per 100 possessions than the ones that the East took from the West.
Revolutionary tracking of the PHYSICALITY in NBA playoff basketball. A new approach to measuring effort and physical impact. Tracking over 40 types of contact — grabs, bumps, vertical contests, clear out moves for a jumpshot, screen battles, sprint recoveries, dives for loose balls etc. — across dozens of playoff games and full series. The goal? To identify who’s really winning the physical battle — and make that teachable, actionable, and tied to results. Why It Matters Predictive Power: The team winning the "Physicality" battle has won the game 71% of the time. Winning the “Playing Hard” effort count won the game 84% of the time! Winning the “Ball Pressure/Swipes at Ball” physicality area won the game 78%.
Quick Overview Oklahoma City won the physicality on a game by game basis 4-3. They also took the "playing hard energy" wins by the same 4-3 margin. The team with the better Physicality score was 5-2, while the team with the most "Playing Hard Wins" was 7-0. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led all players with 226 Physicality Wins, followed by Pascal Siakam (164), Myles Turner (140), Chet Holmgren (134) and Jalen Williams (132). Siakam led in Net Wins with +33. Hartenstein led in Net Wins per 36 min. Siakam was the top "playing hard energy plays" leader with 63 PH Wins, followed by Caruso (55), Holmgren (52), Haliburton (47), and Nembhard (43). Siakam dominated Jalen Williams Head-to-Head (+19 wins), while Shai was +20 net wins against the five IND starters (only losing H2H to Siakam).
And we can sit here and debate whether Kenny was right to do that, whether he should have trusted Tai a little bit more, whether Tai earned a longer leash. But there were people inside the organization that saw the defensive numbers of Ty Jerome in that series against Indiana, and they were terrified. They were terrified about what that could look like moving into the future. And I think there was some hesitancy to make that kind of financial commitment to somebody when you're legitimately wondering, ‘How much can we trust him in a playoff series or in a playoff run?
None of the other 29 teams played with the Pacers’ verve this season. They traveled more miles per game on offense than anyone else in the playoffs, and traveled more miles per game on defense than anyone else in the playoffs, according to Second Spectrum. Indiana’s players combined to run 444 total miles over their 23 playoff games, shattering the previous postseason record, which belonged to the 2019 Toronto Raptors. Second Spectrum has tracked the statistic since 2013. “We play hard for 82 games straight at a higher pace than anyone else,” starting guard Andrew Nembhard said. “I mean, that’s what it is. You only get in shape from the games. (Most teams) just don’t play as hard as us every game. It’s just will.”
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As to why he all of a sudden became a screener upon entering the NBA, he once told me, “This is how we play, and if you’re not bought into it, you’re not gonna play.” So Wallace adapted willingly. Now, he sets picks and rolls to the rim, facilitating from there, as do Alex Caruso, Wiggins and the rest of Oklahoma City’s guards and wings. The Thunder set 28 ball screens per 100 possessions with their guards during the regular season, according to Second Spectrum. No one else in the NBA averaged more than 18.
Does OKC’s record setting +1,247 point differential put them in the conversation as one of the most dominant teams of all time? I’m not so sure. Point differential — the difference between how many points a team scores vs. how many they allow — is a simple and useful metric for evaluating team strength, but it loses some potency when you use it to compare teams across eras. There are more threes than ever before, which makes blowouts more common. If one team gets hot from beyond the arc and the other goes could The Diff could get to +30 rather quickly. This year alone there were 80 games decided by 30 or more points1.
Howard Beck: They didn’t have a flowchart. I’m almost certain they did not actually have one. I don’t think Mitch was being facetious. Which is just to say—it is a very streamlined organization. But sometimes to their detriment. You have probably heard, as I have over the many years, about whether they were fully staffed in the front office or in their analytics department. They were not. They didn’t have Synergy Sports when the other 29 teams had it—they weren’t paying for it. They’ve been lean. They pay their players—they’ve always been known to pay their players. Phil Jackson was the first coach they really paid when he first got there in '99. Before that, they had been known to not necessarily go all-out to pay coaches.
According to GeniusIQ shot data, Gilgeous-Alexander ranked second behind only Sacramento's DeMar DeRozan in 2-point jump shots made (261) and attempted (495) this season. Gilgeous-Alexander's 52.7% shooting on those shots ranked second behind only Phoenix's Kevin Durant among players who attempted at least 150 2-point jumpers. Gilgeous-Alexander joined Durant and Chris Paul, a pair of future first-ballot Hall of Famers, as the only players with at least 250 made 2-point jumpers on 50% shooting or better in multiple seasons since player tracking began in 2013-14. "As my game's been molded and as I came into my own, I've tried to stick with what works and what's comfortable to me," Gilgeous-Alexander told ESPN. "That's one of those things that just has become very comfortable. Then I've figured out how to find certain spots in certain situations, and now I just play with it. But it all started with building the comfortability, and [Cassell] had a big part in that for sure."
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There are distinct shades of Lakers legend Kobe Bryant in Gilgeous-Alexander's game. It's intentional. Like many in his generation, Gilgeous-Alexander considered Bryant his favorite player and studied the intricacies of his game. "A ton, a ton -- more than anyone ever, for sure," Gilgeous-Alexander said. "The way he attacked the game is very impressive to me, and I just think he's one of the most skilled players ever. To have the combination of being one of the most skilled players ever and to be able to attack the game the way he did is why he had such a prolific scoring career. It's no coincidence. The closer I can get to that level, the better off I'll be."
Usually, a struggle like that could be explained by 3-point variance, but not here: Oklahoma City has made 39.8 percent from downtown in the three games. The Thunder are also drawing fouls at a high rate, making their freebies (83.6 percent) and doing solid work on the offensive glass. Even turnovers — Game 3 aside — have been a plus, with a very respectable 11.9 percent rate for the series. But the one area their offense figured to have a massive advantage has instead been a total zero. The Thunder ranked seventh in the league in 2-point shooting at 55.9 percent, while the Pacers were 23rd in 2-point defense at 55.4 percent — the worst mark of any playoff team. Additionally, 2-point shooting is usually more stable than 3-point shooting, and there should be less variance after three games because nearly twice as many shots are 2s.
Limiting fast-break points has been a factor: Oklahoma City averaged a whopping 17.2 fast-break points per game in the previous two rounds against Denver and Minnesota, but the Thunder have averaged a piddling 8.4 thus far in the finals. Subtracting some of those easy run-outs definitely impacts 2-point percentage; the Thunder shot 64.6 percent inside 5 feet in the regular season and 63.7 percent in the last two playoff rounds (even after I eliminated the four-game stampede over Memphis) but just 55.3 percent in these finals. The shooting stats also reveal a more mundane issue: The Thunder’s two best players have missed a ton of makable middies. On 2s beyond 10 feet, Oklahoma City shot 46.4 percent in the regular season, 49.1 percent in the last two playoff rounds … and 36.1 percent in the finals.
Zach Kram: Mind-boggling Game 1 stat: The Thunder threw just 208 passes—the fewest for any team in any game all season. Adjusted for pace, it's the second-fewest in a playoff game in the tracking era (since 2013-14). Emphasizes how Indiana shut off OKC's offensive flow last night.
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